“Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially if It’s About the Future”

Where do you see yourself in ten years’ time?

Whether in a job interview, for a high school yearbook, or in a tweet, it’s a question we’ve all been asked at least once.

Can we ever really give a meaningful answer to it? It’s just a thought experiment, but do we really learn anything from it?

Perhaps not.

A study by psychologists Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel Gilbert, and Timothy Wilson discovered the phenomenon known as the End-of-History Illusion: a “psychological illusion in which individuals of all ages believe that they have experienced significant personal growth and changes in tastes up to the present moment, but will not substantially grow or mature in the future”.

Put simply, although we know full well our lives have changed massively up to now, we tend to think they won’t change anywhere near as much in the next ten years, even though that makes no sense at all.

The psychologists concluded that we need to overcome the illusion to avoid jeopardising optimal decision-making, and this is probably something we should concern ourselves with.

However, the phenomenon actually gives me cause for optimism. I think it might mean that whatever it is we picture for ourselves in the future, the reality could actually turn out to be 10X that.

And in case I’m right, I better make sure I’m headed in the right direction.